November 26, 2007

Last week, just before Thanksgiving, the UN confirmed long-held suspicions that it's global AIDS estimates have been wildly off base for years.

The latest estimates, due to be released publicly Tuesday, put the number of annual new HIV infections at 2.5 million, a cut of more than 40 percent from last year's estimate, documents show. The worldwide total of people infected with HIV -- estimated a year ago at nearly 40 million and rising -- now will be reported as 33 million.

"There was a tendency toward alarmism, and that fit perhaps a certain fundraising agenda," said Helen Epstein, author of "The Invisible Cure: Africa, the West, and the Fight Against AIDS." "I hope these new numbers will help refocus the response in a more pragmatic way."

Epstein's comment that UN numbers may fit "a certain fundraising agenda" is a case-study in understatement. But this is about more than UN officers fudging AIDS numbers to squeeze more cash out of wealthy nations; it has shifted effort and money away from less expensive prevention strategies and towards more expensive drug treatment regimens.

The real question is how to stop or substantially slow the AIDS pandemic. And Helen Epstein explains eloquently why information and prevention strategies can help save lives when policymakers and NGOs have the courage to face the facts on the ground.

Of course, we should be working on both better prevention and treatment options for AIDS patients around the globe - but an ounce of prevention is better than a life-time of expensive AIDS drugs.

In the meantime, this is an excellent example of how often - and for how long - group think can derail sound thinking about health care.

Posted by Paul Howard at November 26, 2007 12:02 PM

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